Hype TestedDoes buying the dip work on Bitcoin?
Short answer: Too few results to tell either way.
"Buy the dip" is the most repeated advice in crypto: wait for a big drop, buy, and ride the bounce. Here is what it actually did, compared with buying on any day and holding just as long.
The rule we tested: Buy Bitcoin after it drops 20% from its 30-day high, hold 30 days.
Only 12 independent results, which is too few to tell skill from luck.
| Buying the dip | Holding Bitcoin | |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +6.5% | +109.3% |
| Per year | +1.2% | +15.4% |
| Worst drop | -23.3% | -76.7% |
| Volatility | +18.5% | +52.0% |
How we tested it
A dip is a close at least 20% below the highest close of the previous 30 days. We buy at the next day's close, hold 30 days, one trade at a time. Each trade is compared with buying on any day of the same period and holding just as long (+2.0% on average), which is the fair test of "the dip is a better time to buy".
Period 2021-08-01 → 2026-09-28. Costs: 0.10% per round trip. Data: Uniswap v3 pool state on Ethereum mainnet, computed by Hype Tested, up to 2026-09-28. Engine 0.1.0.
Trades
| Bought | Sold | Return |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-09-22 | 2021-10-22 | +38.9% |
| 2021-11-27 | 2021-12-27 | -7.0% |
| 2022-01-22 | 2022-02-21 | +5.9% |
| 2022-05-09 | 2022-06-08 | -0.9% |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-14 | -7.4% |
| 2022-09-07 | 2022-10-07 | +1.1% |
| 2022-11-10 | 2022-12-10 | -2.3% |
| 2024-07-06 | 2024-08-05 | -6.7% |
| 2024-08-06 | 2024-09-05 | -0.3% |
| 2025-11-20 | 2025-12-20 | +1.1% |
| 2026-02-02 | 2026-03-04 | -7.9% |
| 2026-06-04 | 2026-07-04 | -0.7% |
What this doesn't tell you
- Past results don't predict future results.
- Trading costs are an estimate (0.10% per round trip). Spreads and slippage can be higher, especially for small stocks and crypto.
- Taxes are ignored. Frequent trading usually costs more in tax than buying and holding.
- Crypto prices are computed by us from Uniswap v3 trading pools on Ethereum: a 30-minute average ending at midnight UTC. They are quoted in USDC, a dollar-pegged token that briefly traded near $0.88 in March 2023, and "BTC" is WBTC, a token backed by bitcoin held by a custodian.
- There are fewer than 30 trades, so luck can easily explain the result.