How we test

The rules every test follows

• No peeking. A signal at one day's close is traded at the next day's close.
• Costs included. 0.10% per round trip.
• Fair comparison. Every strategy is compared with the simplest alternative over the exact same days: holding the asset, or buying on any day.
• Deterministic. Same settings and same data give the same numbers, every time. A test's link never changes.
• No AI in the numbers. An AI (TypeSafe's Jev) only helps pick which test matches what you typed. Every figure and sentence on a result page is computed by fixed rules.

How the verdict is decided

• Too few results to tell: fewer than 30 independent results, or less than 3 years of data.
• No edge: the average difference is within two standard errors of zero. It could easily be luck.
• Measurable edge / Worse than holding: the difference is bigger than that noise band.

Where the prices come from

Crypto prices are computed by us from Uniswap v3 trading pools on Ethereum: a 30-minute average ending at midnight UTC. They are quoted in USDC, a dollar-pegged token that briefly traded near $0.88 in March 2023, and "BTC" is WBTC, a token backed by bitcoin held by a custodian. History starts on 2021-08-01.